EU Emissions Rules: Impact on Flight Costs

Flying in Europe is about to get more expensive. New EU emissions rules are driving up ticket prices, and here’s why:

• Emissions Trading System (ETS): Airlines must now buy allowances for their CO2 emissions, with costs projected to rise significantly. By 2030, ETS costs could add up to $21 per ticket.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Starting in 2025, airlines must blend SAF into flights, which is 3–4 times pricier than regular jet fuel. This will increase ticket prices by $3 to $16 per one-way flight.
• Overall Impact: Combined, these changes could raise ticket prices by 23–29% by 2035, especially on longer routes and premium classes.

For travelers, this means planning ahead is more important than ever. Book early, stay flexible, and use fare-tracking tools to keep costs down. Expect fewer flight options and higher prices as airlines adapt to these costly regulations.

Lufthansa to add environmental charge to fares | REUTERS

How EU Emissions Rules Are Raising Flight Costs

New climate policies in the EU, including adjustments to the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and stricter mandates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), are driving airlines to raise ticket prices.

Changes to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

The EU ETS requires airlines operating within the European Economic Area to track their emissions and submit allowances equal to those emissions ^[1]. In the past, airlines benefited from free allowances to offset some of these costs. However, with the phaseout of free allowances, airlines now have to purchase additional ones through auctions or from other holders ^[4]. This change has significantly increased costs. For instance, without free allowances, the combined 2023 ETS bill for 21 airlines would have been roughly €1.36 billion ($1.5 billion) higher ^[4].

The numbers paint a clear picture of the rising costs. Air France-KLM and IAG reported emissions-related expenses increasing by 37% and 39%, respectively, amounting to hundreds of millions of euros ^[7]. Ryanair, for example, may face an additional €334 million in costs due to the phaseout. At an emissions price of €142, their total increase could hit €1.1 billion ^[7].

Looking ahead, Bernstein analysis estimates that the six largest intra-EU airlines will collectively spend around €5 billion ($5.35 billion) on ETS compliance by 2027, up from €3.5 billion ($3.74 billion) in 2019 ^[5]. Deutsche Bank projects that easyJet, Ryanair, and Wizz Air will collectively spend €785 million on carbon allowances in FY2023, a figure that could surge to €2.25 billion by mid-decade ^[5].

“airlines cannot absorb that… and will need to increase prices.” – Alex Irving, Bernstein Analyst ^[5]

While ETS changes are already straining budgets, the added burden of SAF mandates is further driving up costs.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Requirements

In addition to ETS changes, the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation mandate introduces another layer of cost. Starting January 1, 2025, airlines will be required to blend Sustainable Aviation Fuel into flights departing from EU airports. The initial mandate sets a 2% SAF requirement in 2025, gradually increasing to 70% by 2050 ^[9]. Although SAF reduces lifecycle emissions by at least 70% compared to conventional jet fuel ^[9], it comes with a hefty price tag – costing 3 to 4 times more than standard fuel ^[11]. To manage these expenses, airlines are introducing surcharges.

Lufthansa, for instance, plans to implement an “Environmental Cost Surcharge” starting January 1, 2025, for flights departing from EU countries, the UK, Norway, and Switzerland. These surcharges will range from €1 to €72, depending on the route and fare class, helping to offset rising costs tied to SAF and other environmental regulations ^[10]. For travelers, SAF mandates could lead to ticket price increases of €3 to €15 per one-way flight ^[8]. A week-long vacation package might see a price bump of around 500 crowns (approximately €20) per person ^[8].

Expected Ticket Price Increases

The combination of ETS revisions and SAF requirements is already pushing ticket prices higher across various routes and fare categories. In the short term, emissions-related costs alone could add as much as €10 ($10.70) to a return flight ^[5]. Analyst Alex Irving estimates that ticket prices may rise by €8 to €10 per return journey ^[5].

Cost Component	Current Impact	Projected 2027–2030
EU ETS Compliance	€5 per ticket (2022)	€21 per ticket (2030)
SAF Requirements	€3–€15 per one-way ticket	Increasing with mandate percentages
Combined Effect	€10 per return flight	23–29% total increase by 2035

By 2035, Airlines for Europe anticipates that sustainability legislation could raise ticket prices for flights via hubs like Amsterdam, Paris, or Frankfurt by 23–29% ^[5]. Major European airports could also become up to 30% more expensive over the next decade, potentially leading to a 17% drop in air travel demand ^[5]. In 2022, EU ETS pricing added about €5 per ticket, a figure expected to climb to €21 by 2030 ^[2]. European airlines collectively spent around €3 billion on EUA allowances in 2023, further illustrating the scale of these costs ^[6].

The impact varies by flight type. Longer international routes and premium cabin tickets are likely to see steeper price hikes, while short-haul and economy travelers will face smaller, though still noticeable, increases in travel costs.

How to Save Money on Flights

With EU emissions rules pushing ticket prices higher, travelers need to rethink their approach to finding affordable flights. By combining early planning, flexible travel dates, and expert guidance, you can offset rising costs and keep your travel budget in check.

Book Early and Stay Flexible

When it comes to saving on flights, timing is everything. Research suggests that booking domestic flights 1–3 months in advance and international flights 2–8 months ahead often results in better deals. But there’s a catch – booking too far ahead might backfire. Patrick Surry, chief data scientist at Hopper, points out:

“Booking more than six months ahead can cost you since airlines set their initial prices conservatively.” ^[12]

To strike the right balance, start tracking prices about three months before your trip. Flexibility is also key – midweek flights or flying from alternative airports can make a big difference. Once you’ve locked in a good deal, keep an eye on prices in case there’s a sudden drop – you might be able to snag an even better fare.

Track Prices and Use Deal-Finding Tools

Airline ticket prices constantly shift due to supply and demand, but fare-tracking tools can help you stay ahead of the game. Platforms like Google Flights allow you to monitor changes in real time ^[13]. In fact, starting in spring 2024, Google Flights began displaying previously unavailable fares from Southwest Airlines ^[14].

For peak travel seasons, real-time alerts are a must. Services like Flight Booking 247 offer live, round-the-clock support to help with booking, changes, or cancellations. Their expert concierges monitor prices across multiple airlines, ensuring you don’t miss out on savings. And if automated alerts feel limiting, expert advice can simplify the process even further.

Get Help from Travel Experts

With airfare pricing becoming more unpredictable, turning to travel experts can be a game-changer. Consultants often have insider access to deals, promotions, and exclusive packages that aren’t available through regular booking sites ^[15]. Surveys show that nearly half of travelers – 45% – find that using a travel advisor reduces stress, and 44% are more likely to seek expert help post-pandemic ^[16].

Services like Flight Booking 247 provide 24/7 concierge assistance, which can be a lifesaver during unexpected travel disruptions. Whether it’s rebooking a canceled flight or finding last-minute options, professional help can save you both time and money.

Future Changes in European Aviation

The European Union’s emissions regulations are steering the aviation industry toward a greener future, but this shift comes with higher costs. These operational and financial changes are pushing airlines to rethink how they conduct business.

How Airlines Will Adapt

With compliance costs projected to be 13–14 times higher in 2030 compared to 2019 ^[21], airlines are overhauling their strategies to remain viable.

Upgrading fleets is now a critical focus. Airlines are pouring resources into acquiring fuel-efficient aircraft to reduce emissions and manage long-term costs. Older planes are losing their value, while newer models come with hefty price tags ^[17].

Optimizing routes is another important move. Airlines are scrutinizing their networks to concentrate on profitable routes that can absorb the rising compliance costs. This often means consolidating flights on busy routes while scaling back or eliminating services to less profitable, smaller destinations.

Fuel prices are also climbing. By 2030, fuel costs are expected to rise by 28.6%, jumping from $1,083 per metric ton in 2024 to $1,396 per metric ton ^[18]. To mitigate this, airlines are focusing on improving punctuality, adopting fuel-efficient technologies, and refining air traffic management practices ^[17][19].

Low-cost carriers are feeling the heat the most. Their tight cost structures make it harder to absorb these rising expenses, while full-service airlines are better positioned to weather the storm ^[18].

Impact on Regional Travel and Tourism

These changes are reshaping regional travel and tourism. The demand for flights is expected to drop significantly, with intra-EU air traffic projected to decline by over 8% in 2030 and about 12% by 2035 if all EU reforms move forward ^[21]. This will particularly affect smaller regional airports and communities that depend on tourism.

Budget airlines like EasyJet, Ryanair, and Wizz Air face mounting carbon costs. In fiscal year 2023, these three carriers collectively spent $839 million on carbon allowances – about $2.78 per passenger journey. By mid-decade, this figure is expected to soar to $2.4 billion ^[5]. As Bernstein analyst Alex Irving points out:

“Airlines cannot absorb that… and will need to increase prices.” ^[5]

Ticket prices are already climbing. Emission levies could add as much as $10.70 to a return flight in the coming years ^[5]. For families planning vacations, these added costs can quickly become a financial burden, potentially putting budget travel out of reach for many middle-class households.

Balancing Climate Goals and Travel Costs

The push to meet climate goals is creating tough trade-offs. The EU aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 ^[8]. Yet, the aviation industry’s growth ambitions clash with these targets.

Passenger traffic is expected to double by 2050, which could exhaust the industry’s carbon budget by 2026 ^[22]. According to growth scenarios from Airbus and Boeing, European aviation emissions in 2049 will be only 3% lower than in 2019 ^[22]. Jo Dardenne, aviation director at Transport & Environment, highlights the challenge:

“The numbers leave you speechless. The aviation industry’s plans for growth are completely irreconcilable with Europe’s climate goals and the scale of the climate crisis.” ^[22]

Still, there’s some hope on the horizon. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and advancements in aircraft and engine technology are expected to deliver 83% of emission reductions by 2050 ^[20]. However, SAFs remain expensive – costing 3 to 10 times more than traditional jet fuel ^[3] – and as of 2024, they made up just 0.53% of global jet fuel consumption ^[3].

The industry is calling for policy support. Leaders of major European aviation organizations emphasize:

“It is critical the European Commission delivers an Aviation Strategy this year, grounded in decarbonisation and maintaining competitiveness. There’s not a moment to lose and acting today will ensure a strong, competitive and more sustainable aviation industry for tomorrow.” ^[20]

As airlines adjust to these challenges, passengers will need to navigate a landscape of higher prices and fewer flight options. Services like Flight Booking 247 may become increasingly valuable, offering 24/7 support to help travelers deal with disruptions and limited alternatives in this evolving aviation environment.

Conclusion: What Travelers Need to Know

EU emissions regulations are shaking up flight costs and travel strategies, and it’s something every traveler should keep in mind. Airlines operating within the EU are facing steep compliance costs, with some major carriers projected to rack up billions in additional expenses by 2027 ^[5][6]. These changes, fueled by tougher EU policies and stricter sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) requirements, are already influencing ticket prices.

Expect ticket prices to climb. Emissions levies could add up to $10.70 per return flight, while SAF mandates may tack on an extra $3.20 to $16.05 per one-way ticket, starting as early as 2025 ^[5][8].

With these rising costs, smart travel planning becomes even more important. Booking flights early – 1 to 3 months in advance for domestic trips and 3 to 5 months for international ones – can save you up to 25% ^[23]. Plus, flying midweek or during off-peak times, like January and February, often means snagging cheaper fares ^[23].

The aviation industry is juggling environmental goals with mounting expenses, making travel more expensive and potentially less frequent. Over the next decade, major European airports could see costs rise by as much as 30%, which might reduce air travel demand by 17% ^[5]. In response, some airlines are experimenting with train–flight combos and focusing on routes that can better handle these higher costs ^[24].

In this evolving market, having expert support can make all the difference. Services like Flight Booking 247 provide round-the-clock assistance to help you navigate disruptions, find last-minute deals, and adjust bookings – offering a lifeline as regulations reshape the travel landscape.

While these regulations are here to stay, strategic planning and using the right tools can still help you find affordable options in Europe’s changing aviation world.

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